Prospecting for baseball cards, from Jeremy Pena to Jackson Jobe

June 12, 2024

The prospecting circles overlap when it comes to collecting modern cards and fantasy baseball (and especially dynasty formats).

For cards, we’re looking here at Bowman Chrome auto and just base (non-auto) in both graded and non-graded. Note that a graded 10 (highest grade) will sell for about three to four times what a non-graded card will (assuming you can see no flaws in it), according to Diego Valeriano, a longtime modern card dealer based in Orlando, Fla. There’s a very active market with the Bowman Chrome cards for top prospects — even in the lower minors — going for a range between $50 (raw, non-autographed) to $500 or more (autographed, graded). We asked Valeriano for five players he’s investing in at current prices.

(Full disclosure: I write the backs of the cards for Topps, which has no financial interest in the appreciation of the cards after they are initially sold in packs or boxes.)

These are Valeriano’s preferences, in order of most desirable:

Elly De La Cruz (CIN, SS/3B): Shortstops have more value than third basemen, says Valeriano, so you want De La Cruz to stick there. Scouts believe he could despite his height (6-foot-5). “He’s a Julio Rodriguez type,” Valeriano said. If De La Cruz could have a debut similar to that of Rodriguez, Valeriano said his Bowman Chrome auto graded PSA 10 could jump from a current $500 range to $2,000. So far, Valeriano adds, De La Cruz’s prices have tracked J-Rod’s at similar stages of their careers. De La Cruz turned 21 in January. In 2022, between High A and Double A, he had 29 homers and 47 steals in 371 ABs.

Jeremy Pena (HOU, SS): It’s rare that Valeriano will invest heavily in a veteran player. But after Pena finished fifth in the Rookie of the Year voting in the AL and winning the ALCS and World Series MVPs, Valeriano thinks his card stock will continue to climb. He was the first rookie to ever win World Series MVP. Already, his Bowman Chrome graded 10, and without an auto, went from $80 to about $200 after those MVP votes. “His fielding (Gold Glove winner) should keep him in the lineup even during slumps,” Valeriano said. Pena has 95th percentile sprint speed and 68th max exit velocity, according to Statcast. “He has the power-speed potential collectors want.”

Jordan Lawlar (ARI, SS): “He’s going to be fast to the majors,” Valeriano said. The 20-year-old shortstop played at three levels in 2022. “He’s like Fernando Tatis Jr. He has speed and power.” Across the three levels, he had 39 steals and 16 homers while hitting over .300. He also had a 12.4 percent walk rate. He should be able to stick at shortstop, and his MLB ETA is 2023. “When he’s promoted, prices skyrocket,” Valeriano said. “His base chrome auto will immediately double from about $250 to $300 currently to $500 to $600. And then if he does anything initially, he’ll go up significantly from there.”

Colton Cowser (BAL, OF): “He started in High A and finished in Triple A,” Valeriano said. “He may be in the majors out of spring training.” While he has shown middling power and speed in the minors, with the chance to be 20/20 plus in those categories, strikeouts are Cowser’s weakness (174 in MiLB in 2022). Valeriano thinks he can defend in center, and that makes it more likely he gets playing time. His Chrome base autos “go for about $200 to $250” as a fifth overall pick who is definitely on the radar. But you can get a PSA 10 Bowman Chrome non-auto for $80. Note that Cowser and the more highly rated Gunnar Henderson played nearly the same number of games for Bowie in 2022. Henderson hit .302/.440/.547 with eight HRs. Cowser: .341/.469/.568 with 10 round-trippers.

Jeremy De La Rosa (WAS, OF): The Nationals’ Minor League Player of the Year hit .315/.394/.505 with 10 home runs, 26 steals, 36 walks and 78 Ks in 69 games before a July promotion to High-A Wilmington. There, a wrist injury sapped his power. But overall, he stole 39 bases in 46 attempts. “He’s $40 non-graded, non-auto. Graded non-auto, $150 in PSA 10,” Valeriano said. His ETA depends on how quickly he can climb to Double A in 2023.

“I want to note that getting a PSA 10 in Bowman Chrome is not easy,” Valeriano said. “A lot of Bowman Chrome have print lines right out of the pack. They use microscopes to grade these cards.” So, he cautions, do not pay for any raw card thinking it’s going to be a “10,” no matter what the seller says.

Francisco Alvarez (NYM, C): I see huge potential. Being a Mets player is really a plus for his prices. “He’s already $600 in PSA 10 Chrome auto and $150 to $200 in non-auto graded.” Alvarez has a chance to break camp as a part-time catcher, part-time DH, adding up to full-time ABs. “He’s close to (Pete) Alonso as a power hitter,” Valeriano said. Strikeouts are always going to be part of his game, but he combines patience and power, making him a likely middle-of-the-order bat on a team that should be good enough to give him a chance to shine in the postseason.

Where are the pitchers? “Buyers don’t like investing in them because of the injury risk,” Valeriano said, though he added that he is investing in Sandy Alcantara.

“A pitcher not in the majors who I like is Jackson Jobe of the Tigers. He was a third overall pick in 2021. He throws 100 mph. His cards are affordable — $50 to $60 for non-graded Chrome auto and then you pay for grading if he pops.” Over his final six starts in the minors, Jobe surrendered six earned runs in 28 1/3 innings (1.91 ERA) while striking out 29 and holding opposing batters to a .185 average.

(Top photo: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports)

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